Apple's shipment plan grows while the market shrinks
The GF Securities note projects the global market to fall 14.2% to 1.08 billion units, while Apple's plan grows 4% to 257 million phones.
| Apple | iPhone Duo | iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 shipment projection | 257 million units | ||
| 2026 build plan | 6m units | 72m units | |
| 2026 market share | 24% | ||
| 2025 market share | 20% | ||
| 2024 market share | 19% | ||
| delivery estimate | late January in the US | ||
| analyst rating | Hold | ||
| price target | $369 |
The GF Securities note projects the global market to fall 14.2% to 1.08 billion units, while Apple's plan grows 4% to 257 million phones.
Apple is projected to be the only major smartphone manufacturer to grow shipments. Its share is projected to reach 24%, up from 20% in 2025 and 19% in 2024, while Samsung is left at 241 million units.
The hinge limit trims the iPhone Duo build plan from 7m to 6m units, and the adjustable-aperture camera limit caps the iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max build plan at 72m units.
The constraint is component supply rather than Apple demand. Memory-price pressure already cut the build plans.
The filing does not measure actual 2026 shipments, unit margins, or the full cost of the ongoing memory-price rise. The delay is not quantified beyond late January in the US.
The 257 million figure is a plan, not proof that memory prices will not erode the 24% share.
The rewrite leads with the hinge and camera constraint, keeps the market contraction as context, and treats the projection as a plan rather than proof.
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